Why Coffee Prices Haven’t Fallen — Even as Tariffs Drop

If you’ve been following coffee news, you might have heard that import tariffs on coffee has recently been lifted. That should mean lower prices, right?

We wish it were that simple.

As a small family-owned coffee roaster, we want to be transparent about why pricing has been so challenging over the past year — and why relief is not immediate, even with tariffs easing.

Factor 1 - The Coffee C Market: What It Is and Why It Matters

Coffee is a global commodity traded on financial markets.

The C Market is the baseline price paid for commodity-grade Arabica coffee — and everything else in the coffee supply chain moves relative to it. This is what we buy coffee according to. Think of a stock price that can be volatile and goes up and down daily.

Over the past year, the C Market has soared to historic highs.

For us, that meant our average green coffee cost rose by about $2 per pound — a huge jump in a business where margins are already razor thin.

For perspective:

• Roasters don’t control this price

• It changes daily based on global supply, weather, politics, and speculation

• Even small increases take a big bite out of margins when you roast tens of thousands of pounds

• This $2/lb increase has been quite interesting/alarming to navigate!

Factor 2 - Futures Contracts: Locking in coffee prices to prevent future volatility

Like many roasters, we buy our coffee on futures contracts. It is a risk management tool to lock in predictable costs. Like "I am commiting to buying 100 bags of this coffee at today's C Market price". You lock it in and are obligated to fulfill that contract.

That means we commit to a specific coffee — at a specific price — months before we roast it.

So even though today’s headlines say tariffs are gone or prices might come down:

• We are still roasting coffee purchased months ago

• Those prices were locked in when the C Market was still high

• There is no immediate price relief in our cost of goods

*Futures Contracts also can be risky if we lock in high prices before a market drop, we are locked in at those higher prices.

Most of 2025’s coffee was booked when the market was surging, keeping current prices at a high rate.

Factor 3 - Tariffs Are Gone: But Their Costs Aren’t

Another big factor this past year: tariffs.

Importers — the businesses who bring coffee into the U.S. — paid tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on most coffees. They are not getting this back. They paid it already. So their Cost is still "Tariff" high prices.

Even though tariffs are now lifted:

• Importers already bought and imported coffee with the tariff baked into their cost

• They still need to sell through that coffee at their actual cost including tariffs paid

• So roasters (like us) continue paying elevated prices when we buy from them

• Which means you don’t feel a price drop at the shelf or at your café — yet

Until that coffee pipeline turns over, tariff relief lag-lags behind reality.

The Heart - Why We Haven’t Just Raised Prices

We did raise prices in April 2025 — a small raise compared to our increase of costs... we chose not to go high enough to cover the full increase in our costs. 😬

Why?

Because we believe in:

• Being responsible with price increases

• Protecting our wholesale partners who run small businesses too

• Honoring our promise to customers who trust us

  *We also may be Naive or bad at business 🤦🏻‍♂️

Instead, we’ve spent the year:

• Tightening systems

• Reducing waste

• Simplifying where we can

• Protecting quality

• Absorbing losses rather than passing all of them along

*That being said, we have not ruled out another menor adjustment as we begin 2026.

We’re committed to fair and honest pricing — and that means only raising prices when it’s truly necessary.

 

Inflation: The Invisible Layer

Another reality: Oh yeah, that also!

Coffee isn’t the only thing that got more expensive.

Over the last few years:

• Freight costs jumped

• Packaging increased

• Labor costs rose (and deserve to — people matter)

• Rent, utilities, insurance, maintenance — all up

  
  

Individually they seem small. Combined, they reshape the economics of small business.

So When Will Prices Come Down?

There may be relief — but it would happens slowly.

Here’s what needs to occur:

1. Roasters finish roasting high-cost contracted coffee

2. Importers sell through inventory bought under tariffs

3. New contracts are written at more stable prices

4. The C Market cools and stays stable long enough to matter

5. Companies need to have empathy vs. greed and be willing to be honest and fair about their pricing structure.

The specialty coffee supply chain is long, global, and slow moving.

What changes at the policy level today might not hit your cup for months.

 

Thank You for Supporting Real Coffee

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When you buy a bag from a small roaster — or drink our coffee at your favorite café — you’re supporting:

• Farmers who rely on stable prices

• Importers who work ethically and responsibly

• A team of real people roasting, packing, and delivering coffee every day

• A local business doing everything we can to absorb shocks without sacrificing quality

We’re here for the long haul.

We believe in transparency.

And above all, we are grateful for every cup you share with us.

Tony